Bitcoin Slides Toward $75K as Hot Jobs Data Lifts Fed Hike Bets and ETFs Bleed

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US employers added 165,000 jobs in October, nearly triple what economists had projected, with forecasts ranging from roughly 59,000 to 65,000 depending on the survey. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%, and September's payroll gain was revised up to 60,000.

Markets reacted quickly. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a quarter-point hike at the Fed's December 8–9 meeting climbed to about 77%, up from roughly two-thirds before the release. The central bank held rates at 3.75%–4% in October after raising them in September, so traders now see a strong labor market giving policymakers room to keep tightening.

The pressure was already building. Bitcoin had traded above $80,000 earlier in the week before a sharp sell-off in US tech stocks triggered more than $1 billion in crypto liquidations, most of them leveraged long positions. After Friday's jobs data, the price briefly dipped just below $75,000, its lowest level since August, before recovering to around $76,000 over the weekend.

Analysts are treating $75,000 as the key support zone. A sustained break below it would put lower moving-average levels in play, while a recovery toward the high-$80,000s would be needed to confirm that the August trend has reversed.

Institutional demand added to the weakness. Farside Investors data shows US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $411.9 million in net outflows on November 6, bringing total withdrawals for the month to about $1.28 billion. Funds have seen outflows on four of the first five trading days of November, a sign that larger allocators are trimming exposure as rate expectations rise.

Higher expected interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, and ETF flows are one of the clearest channels through which that shift reaches the market. Strong US data therefore tightens financial conditions twice: first through Fed pricing, then through weaker fund demand. Some strategists note that inflation readings and the outlook for AI-related spending may matter more to the Fed than a single jobs print, so the picture could still change.

Traders will focus on whether ETF flows turn positive, how Bitcoin closes the weekly candle relative to $75,000, and what Fed officials say ahead of the December meeting. The next US jobs report, due on December 4, is the final major data point before that decision.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.